AUD – Australian dollar
The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6695 at time of writing. In Thursday’s session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced a gain of 0.40%, mainly due to positive labor market data reported during the Asian session. On the data front yesterday an unexpectedly low unemployment rate has seen 10 million Australians have a full-time job for the first time in history, likely scuppering any chance of a pre-Christmas interest rate cut. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the jobless rate last month was unchanged from August at 4.1 per cent, after 64,000 new jobs were created in September. The ABS had originally put the August rate at 4.2 per cent, only to revise it down 0.1 per cent. The figures are slightly better than market forecasts, with economists generally expecting it to stay at 4.2 per cent or rise to 4.3. Looking ahead today and we will see the release of the National Australia Bank (NAB) Quarterly Business Confidence survey, which is a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity, such as spending, hiring, and investment.
Key Movers
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, has continued its upward trajectory, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. At press time, the DXY trades near 104.00. U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in September, supporting views that the economy maintained a strong pace of growth in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.4% last month after an unrevised 0.1% gaining in August, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, would rise 0.3%. The U.S. central bank embarked last month on its easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point cut in its policy rate, lowering it to the 4.75%-5.00% range, amid growing concerns about the labor market. The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023 to curb inflation. In other news, US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance hit 241K for the week ending October 11. This was below consensus of 260K and the previous week’s tally, which was revised upward to 260K. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 11 also beat market expectations, coming in at 241K. Investors expected the week’s new jobless claimant count to hold steady at the previous week’s revised 260K.
Expected Ranges
AUD/USD: 0.6600 – 0.6800 ▲
AUD/EUR: 0.6100 – 0.6300 ▲
GBP/AUD: 1.9300 – 1.9500 ▼
AUD/NZD: 1.0950 – 1.1150 ▲
AUD/CAD: 0.9150 – 0.9350 ▼