AUD – Australian dollar
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6656 at the time of writing. AUD/USD seems to be resuming the down trending move it began at the late-September highs, following a brief pull back. On Monday it is down by a third of a per cent and is threatening to break below the October 16 low at US$0.6658. The declines in the Aussie have been attributed to concerns over China’s stimulus measures and recent weakness in copper prices.
Further weakness would depend on breaking below that level and the key September 11 swing low and support level, at US$0.6622. There are no scheduled releases for today. Looking ahead this week, on Thursday we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also release an Annual Report.
Key Movers
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, is slightly higher at the start of the week, supported by safe-haven flows amid geopolitical tensions. Some Federal Reserve (Fed) members are scheduled to speak later on Monday, and their comments will be closely watched for any clues on the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Bets for a less aggressive Fed policy easing might lift the Greenback in the short term.
The chance of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stands at more than 90%. Financial markets have priced in two 25-basis points (bps) interest rate cuts before the end of 2024 and further rate cuts next year, likely bringing the policy rate to a 3.25%-3.5% range by September 2025, per Reuters. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) backslid on Monday, tumbling 330 points and shedding eight-tenths of one per cent as equity markets ease back from recent record highs.
The Dow bore most of the bearish burden to kick off the new trading week, with losses consolidated largely within the major equity index. Economic activity figures in this week’s S&P data on Thursday might shake the USD, as well as those in the Fed’s Beige Book report on Wednesday.
Expected Ranges
AUD/USD: 0.6550 – 0.6750 ▼
AUD/EUR: 0.6050 – 0.6250 ▼
GBP/AUD: 1.9400 – 1.9600 ▲
AUD/NZD: 1.0950 – 1.1150 ▲
AUD/CAD: 0.9100 – 0.9300 ▼