AUD – Australian dollar
The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6740 at time of writing. AUD/USD rebounded from a fresh weekly low (0.6701), even as the US CPI prints for September came in higher at 2.4% versus forecasts of 2.3%, and it remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve will respond to the development, with the release of the minutes from the September meeting. Bias for AUD remains on the downside and a clear break below 0.6700 would suggest further decline, potentially to 0.6670. Earlier this week, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate meeting minutes highlighted a complex economic landscape and its options for future monetary policy adjustments. While the current cash rate remains unchanged, members of the RBA discussed potential scenarios that could necessitate either the tightening or loosening of monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions. Despite maintaining the cash rate, RBA members expressed concerns over persistently high underlying inflation, which has shown only marginal declines in recent months. GDP growth for the June quarter met expectations, but household consumption lagged, prompting a cautious outlook on future economic recovery. There are no scheduled releases today.
Key Movers
In the US overnight, the consumer price index (CPI) or simply inflation data, rose by 2.4% in September on an annualised basis. The figure was the lowest the US has seen in the last three years, but slightly overshot analysts’ consensus views for a 2.3% rise. The monthly rate also topped expectations, coming in at a 0.2% clip from August, against calls for 0.1%. Core prices stayed elevated at 3.3% from a year ago, surpassing the 3.2% clip expected. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week jumped to its highest level in a year, which analysts are saying is more likely a result of Hurricane Helene and the Boeing machinist strike than a broader softening in the labor market. The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless claims jumped by 33,000 to 258,000 for the week of Oct. 3. That’s the most since Aug. 5, 2023 and well above the 229,000 analysts were expecting. The four-week average of claims, which evens out some of that weekly volatility, rose by 6,750 to 231,000. The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by 42,000 to about 1.86 million for the week of Sept. 28, the highest since late July. During the first four months of 2024, applications for jobless benefits averaged just 213,000 a week before rising in May. They hit 250,000 in late July, supporting the notion that high interest rates were finally cooling a red-hot U.S. job market.
Expected Ranges
AUD/USD: 0.6650 – 0.6850 ▲
AUD/EUR: 0.6050 – 0.6250 ▲
GBP/AUD: 1.9250 – 1.9450 ▼
AUD/NZD: 1.0950 – 1.1150 ▲
AUD/CAD: 0.9150 – 0.9350 ▼